Navy Moms for John McCain

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Permalink Reply by Steve's Mom on August 28, 2008 at 7:13pm

here are two interesting articles about how a some analyst think the campaign will be run. It is dated from June 2008. There are more on the BBC website, I took the first two.


Larry J Sabato is professor of politics at the University of Virginia.

The election is Barack Obama's to lose. The Democrats will be favoured: there is an unpopular war, an unpopular president and the economy has tanked. But Obama has demonstrated serious weaknesses and he has a lot of ground to make up.
The issue of race is the great unknown for Barack Obama
The great unknown for Obama is race - we simply don't know how it will play.
Obama will gain from minorities but will lose some of the white working class, particularly in the Rust Belt and the Appalachian region. Some will come back - the vast majority of those who voted for Hillary Clinton will come back, no matter how angry they are at the moment.

John McCain's strength in terms of the Republican Party is that he does have the image of the maverick and moderate, at a time when the public is deeply anti-Bush.

Another of his advantages, is that as we move into the fall, people will focus on defence, military policy and foreign policy.

The downside is his age. Last week, I really thought he was showing his age.

It will be a tough, uphill climb for him but it is doable.



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Tom Mann is an elections expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington

The political environment for John McCain is overwhelmingly hostile.


Barack Obama's ideological position will be tested by John McCain
McCain could start to try to discredit Barack Obama. He could play on a set of concerns that exist or could be planted in the course of the campaign.

Certainly, there is his relative inexperience in politics and public life. There will also be problems revolving around his race and ideology.

His cultural as well as ideological position will be tested by McCain, and there will be an effort to try to associate [his campaign] with the tumultuous 1960s: student radicalism, ideological extremism, lack of patriotism. But, it will be hard for McCain to sustain this.

Everything is pointing towards a negative referendum [on the Bush years]. Obama's challenge is to get himself known to more people; to tell his story, to share his values and to make people comfortable with him, so that in the last two months he can focus on more substantive things like Bush's failures.

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Permalink Reply by Mamma Mary on August 28, 2008 at 7:42pm

Personally, I'm sick of the race issue. I don't get why that even matters. After all, Senator Obama is as much white as he is black.

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Permalink Reply by Steve's Mom on August 28, 2008 at 7:45pm

I agree with you, I am sick of it to. Do you think it is an issue that will lose or gain him him votes? I don't have a clue if it will or not.

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Permalink Reply by Mamma Mary on August 28, 2008 at 7:55pm

My opinion :) ....... I think it will do both. Those who are ignorant when it comes to different races, they won't vote for him....for those who are African American, many will see him as finally having a voice.

Steve's Mom, thanks for starting this forum. I was really frustrated with what happened earlier. As a proud republican, I was a bit ashamed.

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Permalink Reply by JunieB on September 13, 2008 at 4:00am

I agree.
There are many people who judge on looks alone, whether that be color, size, or general 'good/bad looks'. Too many people never bother to research how people believe, they just go on what they think because of how someone looks or, how someone else told them to think instead of checking things out for themselves. Especially the younger generation.

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Permalink Reply by McNavy Mom on September 13, 2008 at 10:27am

Would Republicans support Palin so passionately if she looked like Janet Reno, weighed 200+ llbs and had the same lack of qualifications and education?

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Permalink Reply by Mamma Mary on September 13, 2008 at 10:34am

I don't care how she looks. She's absolutely qualified and educated. I've been thinking about something, Joe Biden had brain surgery for a life-threatening aneurysm, don't you think he should release his medical records?

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Permalink Reply by Carol, Aaron's mom on September 15, 2008 at 5:24pm

That is very interesting. I would think a brain aneurysm is more serious than melanoma. From what I have heard most brain aneurysms simply happen all of a sudden. Weakened arteries that have stayed laytent (sp?) until a certain time, that the situation was possible since birth. Am I wrong about this? But, this is the first I have heard about his previous condition. Of course, they do not want that information out there.

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Permalink Reply by Carol, Aaron's mom on September 15, 2008 at 5:18pm

There are probably a few people who may vote for Sarah Palin because of her looks (maybe men) but not the majority and the comment about the lack of qualifications and education, are you saying that about Obama? You should. In my opinion, looks has nothing to do with it. I personally think that Obama is a very good looking man, but am I going to vote for him. No way.

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Permalink Reply by JunieB on September 13, 2008 at 3:54am

Actually he is more white than black.
I believe the 'heritage" breakdown is 50% white, 43% Arabian (Middle Eastern) & only 7% black ancestry.

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Permalink Reply by Carol, Aaron's mom on September 15, 2008 at 5:26pm

My husband said the same thing several weeks ago. Obama is actually Arab/American not Black American. How come that information is not being put out there. I bet it would change some people's minds, not that I believe they should base their vote on that, but some would.

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Permalink Reply by McNavy Mom on August 28, 2008 at 7:51pm

I agree. Sadly, there are many Americans that will never vote for someone who is not white. I keep wondering what Barack Obama has done that has been so wrong that there is so much anger towards him. I can only conclude that it is about race.

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